Kazakhstan's CO2 emissions in the post-Kyoto Protocol era: Production- and consumption-based analysis.

The first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol came to an end in 2012 and more developing countries began to participate in the new phase of world carbon emission reduction. Kazakhstan is an important energy export country and a pivot of the "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI). Despite its emissions are relatively small compared with huge emitters such as China and the US, Kazakhstan also faces great pressure in terms of CO2 emission reduction and green development. Accurately accounting CO2 emissions in Kazakhstan from both production and consumption perspectives is the first step for further emissions control actions. This paper constructs production-based CO2 emission inventories for Kazakhstan from 2012 to 2016, and then further analyses the demand-driven emissions within the domestic market and international trade (exports and imports) using environmentally extended input-output analysis. The production-based inventory includes 43 energy products and 30 sectors to provide detailed data for CO2 emissions in Kazakhstan. The consumption-based accounting results showed that certain sectors like construction drive more emissions and that the fuel consumption in different sectors varies. Furthermore, Russia and China are major consumers of Kazakhstan's energy and associated emissions, with the construction sector playing the most important role in it. The results suggested that both technology and policy actions should be taken into account to reduce CO2 emissions and that the BRI is also a good chance for Kazakhstan to develop a "Green Economy".

• CO2 emission inventories are estimated in Kazakhstan from 2012Kazakhstan from to 2016 • Consumption-based emissions patterns are different from production-based ones. 21 • Construction drives most emissions embodied in trade. 22 • Kazakhstan should develop renewable energy to achieve the "Green Economy". 23 Abstract 24 The first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol came to an end in 2012 and more developing 25 countries began to participate in the new phase of world carbon emission reduction. Kazakhstan is 26 an important energy export country and a pivot of the "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI). Despite its 27 emissions are relatively small compared with huge emitters such as China and the US, Kazakhstan 28 also faces great pressure in terms of CO2 emission reduction and green development. Accurately 29 accounting CO2 emissions in Kazakhstan from both production and consumption perspectives is the 30 first step for further emissions control actions. This paper constructs production-based CO2 emission 31 inventories for Kazakhstan from 2012 to 2016, and then further analyses the demand-driven 32 emissions within the domestic market and international trade (exports and imports) using 33 environmentally extended input-output analysis. The production-based inventory includes 43 energy 34 products and 30 sectors to provide detailed data for CO2 emissions in  based accounting results showed that certain sectors like construction drive more emissions and 36 that the fuel consumption in different sectors varies. Furthermore, Russia and China are major 37 consumers of Kazakhstan's energy and associated emissions, with the construction sector playing 38 the most important role in it. The results suggested that both technology and policy actions should 39

Introduction 44
The threat of global climate change is one of the greatest challenges worldwide [1][2][3]. From the 45 Kyoto Protocol, the world began to realize the importance of controlling greenhouse gas emissions. 46 After the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (1997-2012, the world began to seek a 47 more effective way to promote carbon mitigation. The Paris Agreement emphasizes the emission 48 reduction obligations of developed and developing country groups, as being different but equally 49 important [4]. This responsibility-sharing system indicates that emerging economies are getting 50 involved in the global emission reduction process. Kazakhstan is the largest landlocked country in 51 the world with plentiful natural resources and is also one of the largest oil and gas exporters in the 52 world, especially for the "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) [5]. The exploration of emission reduction in 53 Kazakhstan is of great significance and the approval of the Paris Agreement is a milestone for this 54 fossil energy-intensive country [6]. According to the Paris Agreement, Kazakhstan is committed to 55 fulfilling its unconditional target of a 15% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 31 56 December 2030 (compared to 1990) and a conditional target of a 25% reduction in greenhouse gas 57 emissions by 31 December 2030 (compared with 1990) [7,8]. At the same time, Kazakhstan faces 58 serious environmental problems [9]. To help to limit a global temperature rise well below 2 degrees 59 with reference of pre-industrial levels by the end of this century, Kazakhstan has made great efforts 60 toward low carbon energy structure through the use of policy and technology [10], such as the 61 "Green Economy in Kazakhstan" project, aiming at cutting carbon emissions by 40% in 2050 from 62 2012 levels [11,12]. 63 One of the serious challenges to the "Green Economy" idea comes from the energy-oriented exports 64 in Kazakhstan. Domestic use and foreign demand together constitute about 80% of energy 65 distribution in nearly the same share [13]. In December 2015, Kazakhstan became a full member of 66 the World Trade Organization and in the following year, it exported energy and mineral products 67 worth 22.58 billion dollars (68.7% of total exports) to more than 190 trade partners in the world 68 [14]. Within that large amount of annual energy exports to the world, Kazakhstan exports three 69 types of energy resources (coal, oil and gas) for more than 100 billion tonnes of oil equivalent every 70 year. More than 43% of fuel exports is consumed by the Asia-Pacific region every year, and the BRI 71 stimulates the passion to cooperate with Kazakhstan on natural resource extraction and 72 transportation, especially for China [15,16]. Now, China is committed to proposing a "Green Belt 73 and Road" and achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement with partners along the New Silk Road [17]. 74 To offer a scientific foundation for designing efficient mitigation measures in developing "Green Belt 75 and Road", it is necessary to further study Kazakhstan's potential for the green transition. 76 Accurate cognition of emission and energy accounts in Kazakhstan is the first step towards further 77 implementing emission reduction actions. It is also the most important contribution of this study. 78 The sketch of Kazakhstan's national emissions starts from production-based accounting. Production-79 based accounting is based on emissions emitted from a sector or a country. United Nations 80 Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol utilized Kyoto Protocol. Karakaya et al. (2005) [41] applied a decomposition 114 analysis to study the driving forces of fossil fuel combustion emissions in Central Asia from the 115 collapse of Soviet Union to the beginning of 21st century (1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001), emphasizing that Kazakhstan 116 improved its energy intensities to save energy and reduce carbon emissions, but emissions might 117 increase due to the economic recovery since 2000. Regarding Kazakhstan as a part of the former 118 Soviet Union, Brizga et al. (2013) [42] adopted the IPAT model to study the decoupling and driving 119 forces of the former Soviet Union in different stages of economic development, when decoupling 120 between CO2 emissions and economic growth was obvious while driving forces were various. For 121 Kazakhstan, the economic recession led to fewer emissions and the industrialization led to more 122 emissions. Akhmetov (2015) [43] further studied the key factors of industrial CO2 emissions in 123 Kazakhstan for the period 1990-2011 using Index Decomposition Analysis, concluding that 124 Kazakhstan still strongly depended on carbon-intense industries which would lead to worse 125 environmental condition. Karatayev and Clarke (2014) [44] reviewed the energy utilization in 126 Kazakhstan and pointed out that coal-based power generation was the main cause of the 127 greenhouse gas emissions, so it was necessary to adopt renewable energy resources. Based on 128 previous research, this paper tries to explore Kazakhstan's CO2 emissions in the post- Kyoto Protocol 129 era, which refers to both production-and consumption-based analysis. Assembayeva et al. (2018)  Therefore, a gap remains in the connection between production-and consumption-based emissions. 144 This study presents the production-based CO2 emission inventories of Kazakhstan  The production-based accounting in this study presents as an annual CO2 emission inventory from 157 2012 to 2016. The accounting scope is limited to energy consumption related CO2 by socioeconomic 158 activities in Kazakhstan. 159 According to the 2006 IPCC guidelines [19], the production of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel 160 combustion can be calculated by the following equation: 161 In Equation (1), refers to the accounting results of carbon emissions, which are from the 163 combustion of fuel i in sector j, and is the total result of all sectors and fuel products; stands 164 for the amounts of fuels combusted by fuel i in sector j, and also defines as activity data; is net 165 calorific value of fuel i, representing the amount of heat released during the combustion; means 166 the carbon content of fossil fuel i, referring to carbon emissions per unit of fuel consumed; is the 167 oxygenation efficiency during combustion [23][24][25][26]. In this study, we adopt ∈ [1,43]  In contrast to production-based emissions, consumption-based accounting allocates the emissions 178 along the production supply chain to meet the final demands, which specifically accounts the 179 emissions driven by the final consumer. Consumption-based emissions in Kazakhstan include 180 demand-driven emissions in 57 socioeconomic sectors embodied in local commodities that are 181 consumed locally and emissions embodied in international imports that are produced in other 182 countries. Environmentally Extended Input-output Analysis (EEIO) is widely used in trailing economic 183 drivers of regional and global CO2 emissions accounting [30][31][32]. EEIO is generated based on the 184 classic IO model and is built upon intersectional flows in intermediate demand and final demand. 185 The general structure of classic IO model is 186 where is the total output of each sector; , the direct requirement matrix, indicates the direct 188 input for production processes; is the final demand matrix; and is defined as = / , referring 189 to direct technique coefficient and the contribution of each element in the direct requirement 190 matrix makes towards total output. To further rewrite the equation (1) that is a function of , we 191 have: 192 where is the identity matrix and = ( − ) −1 is the Leontief inverse matrix. Then the 194 environmental account should be incorporated into the model: 195 where is production-based emissions in Kazakhstan for each sector, and refers to the emission 198 intensity, which is the emissions per unit of output; ^ and ^ represent the diagonal matrix with 199 elements of and on its main diagonal, so we finally get , which is the matrix of emission 200 associated with n sectors. This model can be extended to analysis emission embodied in 201 international trade as well, in which the meaning of each symbol is extended to the corresponding 202 range in a multi-regional case. Accounting for Kazakhstan's carbon emission inventories is based FEB of Kazakhstan 2012Kazakhstan -2016 compiled by Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan Committee on statistics 207 [13]. These official statistical yearbook series contain 43 fuel products and 14-17 socioeconomic 208 sectors in energy balance tables at the national level. Besides the indicators above, each FEB of 209 Kazakhstan includes other energy indicators, such as the number of heat sources and price index of 210 enterprises manufacturing industrial products for energy resources, which can be used in further 211 exploration about energy consumption in Kazakhstan. 212

IO tables 213
Input-output tables are collected from the GTAP database and provides the multi-regional input-214 output tables, which includes 141 countries or regions and 57 sectors in 2011 and 2014 separately 215 [56]. As we were unable to access to Kazakhstan's national input-output tables, we use Kazakhstan's 216 part in GTAP 2011 and 2014 instead. Also, due to the lack of input-output to the same energy type in IPCC, and our detailed matching process is contained in Table S1 in 228 Supporting Information. 229 We further adjust and standardize socioeconomic sectors according to the National Accounts of the 230 Republic of Kazakhstan [57], so we have 30 socioeconomic sectors to make Kazakhstan's emission 231 inventories. Moreover, to match the emission inventories with the GTAP database, the 30 sectors 232 are further divided into 57 sectors based on each sector's output share for inventories in 2012 and 233 2014 (Table S2 in Supporting Information). As output share is not the same as emission share, we 234 adjust some sectors' data according to the GTAP environmental account (eg. water supply). It is also 235 why we do not divide every year's inventory into 57 sectors in the annual emission inventory. 236 The energy reservations directly decide the energy supply and demand structure, and further affect 245 emissions. Fossil fuel combustion is the major source of CO 2 emissions in Kazakhstan [19], and the 246 structure of fuel production and consumption reflects the activity level data for emissions. According 247 to Kazakhstan's official statistics, from 2012 to 2016, domestic energy supply maintains a stable level 248

Results and discussion
(286.645-301.112 10 6 tons conventional fuel) and meets most of the demand for domestic and 249 exports (75.95%-87.67%), while imports and other intakes only account for a small share of the total 250 (3.24%-5.37%). In total primary energy supply, the percentage of coal is 40% while oil and gas 251 separately accounts for nearly 30%, but in total final consumption, coal surpasses the other two 252 primary energy items by more than 20% [13]. From this perspective, the energy consumption 253 structure of Kazakhstan is coal-dominated, and countries with similar energy structure usually face 254 serious emission reduction tasks. 255 Referring to the time trend of Kazakhstan's energy consumption, economic development in the 256 same period needs to be considered. As Fig. 1  consumption and GDP experience initial growing and followed by decline, but GDP falls much more 272 and energy consumption intensity shows an increasing trend in the years of the economic 273 slowdown. From the decoupling analysis perspective, there is also a weak decoupling and weak 274 negative decoupling relationship between energy consumption and GDP. 275 the trend displayed in Fig.2, we adopted the Mann-Kendall test to explore the possible decreasing 283 trend in CO2 emissions [59,60]. However, the test result is p-value = 0.242, which means it fails to 284 conclude any significant trend in the research period (α = 0.05). This indicates the fluctuated feature 285 of Kazakhstan's emissions at the beginning of the post-Kyoto Protocol period. With more data to 286 collect, we will conduct the test again in future research. 287 Listed energy products are responsible for more than 90% of the total emissions. Among these major 288 fossil fuel sources, a series of coal-related energy contributes to CO2 emissions far more than others, 289 and Stone coal for energy is responsible for nearly 70% of coal emissions on average. However, 290 according to official Kazakhstan statistics, the share of coal consumption in total natural resources is 291 only about 35%-45% in recent years; gas-related fuel is preceded only to coal; Associated petroleum 292 gas and Natural gas induce nearly 6000 Kt CO2 during the 2012-2014 period; at the same time, Gasoil 293 is the main source of oil-induced emission, accounting for about 90% of oil-related products. 294 increasing. Based on this fact, we assume that some important economic drivers recede so that 298 related emissions fall as well, but other sectors emit more in 2014. According to the CO2 emission 299 inventory and sectoral category standards from  [23], we further analysed the 300 sector structure of emission. In all, 30 socioeconomic sectors in emission inventory are aggregated 301 to four kinds of sectors based on their socioeconomic features in Table S3 in Supporting Information:  302 farming sector, industry sectors, construction and service sectors. Industry sectors are further 303 divided into energy production, heavy manufacturing, light manufacturing and other industries. As 304 Fig. 2 shows, energy production accounts for more than 70% of total emissions, and top emitters 305 from other industries or sectors are presented as well. 306 Energy production industries and main heavy industries emit more while emission of non-specified 307 industry drops sharply in 2014. Non-specified industry always plays a significant role in industrial 308 emissions, except in 2014, the inflexion point of Kazakhstan's economy. In 2015-2016, energy 309 production industries emit 24% less than the peak value in 2014, when heavy industry and non-310 specified industry become more emission-intensive. This result explains the five-year trend of CO2 311 emission and economic status. 312 As an energy-driven emerging economy, energy production and consumption are and will be the 313 main motivation of economic development. High-carbon developing mode usually promotes the 314 emerging economy's development immediately at the beginning phases, but the low-carbon 315 economic transformation will be a compulsory topic in the long run. intensities more. If we take 0.5 as the baseline to distinguish the emission intensity level, the 11 328 countries above can be divided into two groups: Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan 329 are in the high-intensity group, and others are in the low-intensity group. The high-intensity group 330 has a downward trend but still keeps in the high-intensity level (above the baseline). Countries in the 331 high-intensity group all have very similar industrial structures, which are dominated by the energy 332 industry. In that group, Kazakhstan's emission intensity ranks 3 rd or 4 th place from 2012 to 2016, 333 which means the economy is relatively green and clean in energy-oriented countries. But compared 334 to other similar economies, especially emerging economies which are not dependent on energy 335 production, Kazakhstan seems to be much more carbon intense. In the future development even 336 international competition, the feature of the high carbon intensity of Kazakhstan's economy may 337 cause deeper problems in the long run. differ from production-based emissions for complicated economic activities, and this difference also 344 tells us the "actual" emitters in the national economy. 345 For total emissions, three top production-based emitters are turning to decrease in consumption-346 based emissions. Electricity supply (ELY), gas production (GAS) and land transport (OTP) emit more 347 than 151.47Mt CO2, accounting for 42, 19, and 6% of total fuel combustion emissions in the 348 production process respectively, which mainly come from coal, oil and gas combustion. This 349 distribution corresponds to Kazakhstan's energy-leading economic structure. However, from the 350 perspective of consumption, those three sectors contribute only 39.49Mt CO2, accounting for 11, 5 351 and 1% of total emissions. The sharp decline of electricity supply and gas production may be 352 attributed to other sectors' strong reliability of energy and convenient land transportation, 353 especially in some light manufacturing and service sectors. 354 On the contrary, due to the longer supply chain involving high-carbon industries (oil, gas, electricity 355 supply and land transport), some sectors which are not main emitters in production contribute 356 multiple times the level of emissions in consumption. Oil production (OIL), public administration 357 (OSG) and construction (CNS) together emit 11.71Mt CO2, accounting for 5% of emissions from the 358 perspective of production, but separately emit 36.43Mt, 20.65Mt and 17.11Mt CO2 from the 359 perspective of consumption, accounting for more than 33% of the total emissions. Besides, many 360 industry sectors and service sectors contribute more emissions from the perspective of 361 consumption, such as other metals (NMF), trade (TRD), petroleum and coal products (P_C), and 362 chemical, rubber and plastic products (CRP). For agriculture, energy and heavy industry input lead to 363 more consumption-based emission; and for ferrous metals (I_S) and other manufactures (OMF), the 364 main demands go to electricity and themselves, so this sector plays an important role in both the 365 production and consumption scenario. 366 For emissions from different fuels, coal displays a similar pattern as total emissions for it is the main 367 fuel resource of economic activities, while demands from the food industry (CMT, OMT and MIL) 368 also induce considerable consumption-based emissions. Nearly 70% of oil production-based 369 emissions go to land transport, oil production and other manufactures and oil production together 370 with construction become the main drivers of consumption-based emissions. Gas emission 371 distribution seems to be much simpler in that gas production and electricity supply account for more 372 than 90% of production-based emissions, while in consumption-based emissions, demands for oil 373 and gas result in 50% of emission and demands for heavy manufacturing and many service sectors 374 share the other 50%. 375 is obvious that the main distribution remains the same while some sectors change their rankings in 382 emission contribution. Other manufacturing (OMF), other business services (OBS) and coal (COA) 383 tend to emit less from consumption-based perspective. On the contrary, consumption-based 384 emissions concerning other minerals (OMN), machinery and other equipment (OME) and other food 385 products (OFD) prompt more emissions than before. If those sectors are clustered to a more 386 aggregated level, results based on detailed fuel categories extend our analysis. 387 As analysed in section 3.2, compared to 2012, the energy production industry contributes more 388 emissions from the perspective of production. From the perspective of consumption, only demands 389 for gas induce more emissions than 2012, while emissions caused by both coal and oil demands in 390 the energy production sector decline, which is opposite to the total trend. Another important 391 emission reduction happens in other manufacturing (OMF), which has already been discussed in 392 section 3.1. From the following figure (Fig. 5), we can see that the consumption-based emissions in 393 other manufacturing have fallen by a fair amount, while the main source refers to coal emissions. As 394 to demand-driven view, the huge reduction of demand from other manufacturing itself leads to this 395 result. Other sectors keep a pretty stable demand for other manufacturing and even some heavy 396 industry sectors induce more emissions. 397 Besides energy production and other industries, different fuels perform differently in emissions of 398 various sectors. From the perspective of consumption, coal-induced emissions distribution in 2014 is 399 consistent with 2012 except in other manufacturing; oil-induced emissions caused more by demand 400 for service sectors, light manufacturing and farming sectors in 2014, and demand for construction is 401 always the main driver of emissions; gas emissions are mainly led by demands for energy 402 production, heavy manufacturing and service. The time trend is quite clear as is its distribution. 403

Exported and imported emission flows embodied in trade 404
Emissions embodied in exports and imports are driven by different sectors and countries as Fig. 5  405 shows. For exports, Kazakhstan produces more CO2 emissions to meet foreign markets' needs in 406 construction, various kinds of industrial sectors and service sectors concerning public service, 407 transport and trade. Among those drivers, construction (CNS) is the dominant sector that drives 408 approximately 16% of total emissions embodied in exports. From 2011 to 2014, Kazakhstan 409 produces less CO2 emissions (7.62%) to export. Besides construction, this fall mainly comes from 410 industrial sectors, such as other manufacturing (OMF) and other machinery and equipment (OME), 411 while most of the service sector drivers contribute more, except public service (OSG) and air 412 transport (ATP). For imports, the embodied emissions are generally associated with construction 413 (CNS), wearing apparel (WAP), chemical, rubber and plastic products (CRP), motor vehicles and parts 414 (MVH), other machinery and equipment (OME) and public service (OSG). Compared to 2011, total 415 emissions embodied in imports increase significantly (47.17%), and this can be attributed mainly to 416 emerging demands for CRP in domestic markets. Demands for MVH, services and food products also 417 contribute to the growth. Construction is the most important sector in both export and imports. In 418 the recession of emissions embodied in exports from 2011 to 2014, the amount of emissions related 419 to construction also falls but the proportion rises, which means the driving force from construction is 420 relatively stable; at the same time, during the extending process of emissions embodied in imports, 421 emissions related to construction also experiences a considerable increase in both amount 422 (2724.03Kt to 3771.49Kt) and proportion (14.10% to 19.52%). On the one hand, construction itself is 423 a sector which includes long value chains and has support from high carbon industries; on the other 424 hand, construction is an essential force to promote economic development, especially for an 425 emerging economy. 426 Union (XSU). Japan, Israel and Turkey also take significant account in emissions related to exports. The results indicate that from the production perspective, even the supply of coals depends on 476 imports more than before, coal-related fuels are the main contributors to emissions. 477 Correspondingly, energy production and heavy manufacturing are major emitters. Due to the 478 western sanctions towards Russia, the emission intensities in related industries vary in 2014, as 479 same as Kazakhstan's economy. From the consumption perspective, oil production, public 480 administration and construction are top contributors, and other metals, trade and petroleum and 481 coal products drive more emissions than in the production perspective. Meanwhile, different fuels 482 play different roles: more emissions produced by energy sectors flow to industry and service sectors 483 in coal and gas, while more emissions produced by service sectors flow to energy sectors in oil. 484 In the further analysis of emissions embodied in trade, construction drives most emissions in exports 485 and consumes most emissions in imports at the same time. Besides, major drivers for emissions 486 embodied in exports are petroleum and coal products, public service and machinery. And the main 487 consumers of emissions embodied in the imports are wearing apparel, chemicals, and motor 488 vehicles. For trade partners, Russia and China are important consumers and producers. Kazakhstan 489 acts as a transition point for Russia and the western world after the sanctions and a considerable 490 amount of emissions take place in the re-export process. Chinese active demands for investment in 491 few sectors drive more than half of the emissions embodied in exports, while the import side is 492 dominated by household and distribute to more sectors. 493

Policy recommendations 494
Based on the detailed analysis of Kazakhstan's emission features, the main causes of CO2 emissions 495 in Kazakhstan are high-coal energy production and industries, including domestic consumption and 496 international trade. Thus, the most essential policy is developing a mature system of renewable 497 energy to replace coal gradually. Kazakhstan began to develop renewable energy from the beginning 498 of this century, but the coal oriented energy production has not changed yet. To achieve a low 499 carbon transition, Kazakhstan needs a comprehensive strategy to encourage renewable energy 500 development: 501 First of all, the government should increase the financial supports for the promotion of renewable 502 energy. The potential and existed renewable energy in Kazakhstan is abundant, but the promotion is 503 blocked by higher economic costs. Kazakhstan is still an emerging economy, so if cleaner means 504 more expensive, the public will tend to choose cheaper energy even it leads to more carbon 505 emissions. It is necessary for the government to take fiscal measures to guide the public adopting 506 cleaner energy, such as tax incentives, financial subsidies, and government procurements. 507 Moreover, creating new economic growth chances for low carbon transition and renewable energy. 508 As the most essential and biggest emerging economy in Central Asia, high-carbon industries are 509 often the key drivers of the economy. The balance between emission reduction and economy 510 development should be considered seriously. Besides the attempt to balance in the residential 511 sector [66]. It will be more efficient if Kazakhstan can explore new economic growth chances from 512 renewable energy applications, including more job opportunities, new industries and new supply 513 chains. The promotion of renewable energy should not only be a burden but one of the important 514 economic engines for this country in the long term. 515 Finally, more international cooperation in the green economy and renewable energy. The "Belt and 516 Road Initiative" is an ideal opportunity for Kazakhstan to cooperate with China and other economies 517 to solve the common development problems. Take China as an example, the northwest regions of 518 China have a similar geographical environment with Kazakhstan, thus the experience of carbon 519 mitigation and renewable energy development may enlighten Kazakhstan. Besides, Kazakhstan has 520 been the energy supplier for Asia and Europe for a long time, which increases local carbon 521 emissions. Corresponding to Kazakhstan's "Bright Road Initiative", China's "Belt and Road Initiative" 522 also aims to strengthen Kazakhstan as a logistics pivot connecting Europe and Asia, instead of a 523 simple energy producer. 524